Elections

There are 41 posts filed in Elections (this is page 1 of 5).

In the US today, the Electoral College is meeting to cast electoral votes for Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. Per CNN, Donald Trump has already received enough votes to win the presidency. I tried to find where the Oregon Electoral College meeting is, but did not find anything. Quite a difference from four years ago, when almost all of the electoral college meetings were televised.

What a difference 161 votes makes

There is a saying that ” your vote makes a difference” or “every vote is important”. In a Oregon House race that just concluded, every vote was, indeed, important.

This happened to be Oregon House District 22, in which I reside. The incumbent, Republican Tracy Cramer, was being challenged by Democrat Lesly Munoz. On November 5th, initial results showed Cramer leading by over 500 votes. However, as votes continued to be processed, Cramer’s lead narrowed. On November 14th, Munoz took the lead by a single vote.

Oregon is a vote-by-mail state, and in addition, Oregon counts votes mailed that are postmarked by Election Day and received within 8 days after Election Day. As a result, my county (Marion County, Oregon) was still receiving valid votes through November 12, and then was continuing to process ballots after that point. so vote totals kept changing.

After all valid ballots had been counted, there were still over 800 ballots for this House district that needed to be “cured” to be considered valid ballots. In general, this meant that there was a signature verification issue, and the ballots were set aside. Marion County then sent letters to all of those registered voters informing them of the problem and told them they had to go to the county elections office to “cure” their vote by 5pm on November 26th. The campaigns and parties also received lists of these voters, and worked to get these voters to cure their ballots. As of November 25th, there were still over 500 ballots not cured, and the last report from Marion County showed Munoz ahead by 149 votes. The final unofficial tally was released by Marion County around 6:00pm on November 26, with Munoz leading Cramer by 161 votes. Yes, in this race, every vote did make a difference.

Thoughts on the US 2024 election

I am feeling somewhat better now. Last week, I was suffering from “election depression. On the night of the election, we turned the TV off at 10pm. In the morning, neither my wife nor I wanted to turn the TV on, but we did, and the first words we see are “TRUMP WINS”. Ugh. As I thought about the the past four years, and why did the election end up with a Trump win, the phrase “necessary but not sufficient” came to mind. It was necessary to update the Electoral Count Act, and it was necessary to take actions to have hundreds of lawyers ready to fight frivolous election fraud claims, and it was necessary to build up the elections offices across the US to ensure a free and fair election. But, those things, in and of themselves, were not sufficient to guarantee victory for Kamala Harris. Another phrase that comes to mind is “preparing to fight the last war“. Again, preparations were made to avoid another violent takeover like January 6th, but preparations were not made (or actions taken) to help ensure that Donald Trump would lose the election (fair and square). I am not the person to say what should have been done, or how the Democratic Party should have approached the 2024 election, but the fact that Trump won the popular vote and the Electoral College vote shows that (1) more people wanted Trump than Harris, and (2) all of the weird things that Trump did, all the things he did, the civil and criminal cases against him, did not sway his supporters to vote for Harris.

Nine days after the election, Trump has picked up the rest of the swing states, and Republicans will be in control of the House and Senate – the trifecta. Trump’s cabinet picks so far look like a “clown car from the circus”. His strategy – selecting people who will be totally loyal to him.

For myself, I need a little rest from the election. My wife and I have cut way back on our news consumption. I think our short term plan will be “watch and listen” or “wait and see”.

Why I am sticking with Joe Biden

Yes, I watched the CNN debate on Thursday with Joe Biden and Donald Trump. Yes, I  thought Joe Biden’s “performance” at the debate was poor, compared to the confidence of Trump’s presentation. However, Biden answered the questions set by the moderators and generally answered those questions truthfully, while Trump repeatedly refused to answer the questions in the debate, even after being pressed several times for some of those questions. Trump told so many lies that it took CNN’s Daniel Dale several minutes just to list all the lies that Trump spewed out over the course of the debate (also see text of fact checking). As Joe Biden mentioned afterwards, “It’s hard to debate a liar.”.

Several other perspectives:

Mary Trump (Trump’s niece) on Substack:

While Biden’s performance is rightly being criticized, it was the debate moderators who allowed Donald to steamroll the truth with an incessant stream of increasingly bizarre and dangerous lies — that he, not President Biden instituted a cap on insulin, that blue states allow women and their doctors to commit infanticide, and that Nancy Pelosi  was somehow responsible for January 6th — while refusing to answer the questions asked of him. Why Jake Tapper and Dana Bash chose to abdicate their journalistic responsibility in service to a man who is an enemy of American democracy and a free press only they know, but that abdication should be a much bigger story, I know who Joe Biden really is. And I know who my uncle really is.  And I’ll take the decent guy with the sore throat who believes in democracy over the rapist insurrectionist monster every single time.

https://marytrump.substack.com/p/why-im-still-with-president-biden

Seth Abraham on Substack:

Biden will not step away from the 2024 election cycle because it would hand the presidency, beyond any doubt, to a confirmed rapist, serial sexual assailant, active insurrectionist, convicted felon, pathological liar, malignant narcissistic sociopath, gleeful adulterer, career criminal, unrepentant con man, traitorous would-be U.S. dictator, misogynist, antisemite, racist, homophobe, transphobe, Islamophobe, and budding war criminal.

https://sethabramson.substack.com/p/the-extremely-simple-reason-maga

Heather Cox Richardson on Substack:

Tonight was the first debate between President Joe Biden and presumptive Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump, and by far the most striking thing about the debate was the overwhelming focus among pundits immediately afterward about Biden’s appearance and soft, hoarse voice as he rattled off statistics and events. Virtually unmentioned was the fact that Trump lied and rambled incoherently, ignored questions to say whatever he wanted; refused to acknowledge the events of January 6, 2021; and refused to commit to accepting the result of the 2024 presidential election, finally saying he would accept it only if it met his standards for fairness. 

https://heathercoxrichardson.substack.com/p/june-27-2024

The American people have a choice between a convicted felon and liar, and a man who has fought to preserve democracy and improve our way of life. I am going with the second one. 

Book Review: “Rules for Resistance: Advice from Around the Globe for the Age of Trump”

I found this book on the shelves near the John Kasich book I posted about yesterday. The book is a series of essays published in 2017 and edited by David Cole, National Legal Director for the ACLU. The essays are grouped by region (Europe, The Middle East, Asia, Latin America) as well as a set of essays for journalists covering Trump, and the text of the original guide from the group Indivisible.

Each essay passes on ideas/anecdotes on specific authoritarian rulers in those regions. The ones about Silvio Berlusconi in Italy were most like Trump, but essays about Orban, Modi, and Putin were also instructive. There were two essays that I thought had the best advice for opposing Trump:

Luigi Zingales, in an op-ed for the New York Times in November 2016 (paywall, also mostly available in this Washington Examiner post), compares Trump and Berlusconi, showing many similarities. He points out that Hillary Clinton spent so much time explaining how bad Trump was that she did not often promote her own ideas, to make the positive case for voting for her. Also, the news media focused too much on Trump’s behavior. The only two politicians who beat Berlusconi did it by focusing on the issues, not Berlusconi’s character. From this, I would say that the Democratic Party is trying to point out the significant policy differences between Trump and Biden, but I think there is still too much focus on Trump’s character flaws. Also, the hope that the indictments against Trump would keep him out of the election have gone for naught, so he will have to be beaten at the ballot box.

Anne Applebaum wrote an article for the Washington Post (also available on her site) called “Advice from Europe for Anti-Trump Protesters”, in which she made some observations about elections in Poland in 2015 and 2016. A radical populist party was able to win with a minority of voters, and started to destroy democratic and state institutions. Poles took to the streets in huge demonstrations. Here is a summary of her reflections on the value of those protests (her sub-headings from the article):

  • Protest makes people feel better
  • Protest, if not carefully targeted, achieves little
  • Protests inspire conspiracy theorists
  • Politics matter more than protests
  • In a democracy, real change comes through politics, political parties and elections

I think her final two sentences sum up her advice well:

“Protesting might make you feel better, it might win a few battles, and it might attract attention. I’m sorry if you are angry at “the establishment”, but you need to work for it and within it if you want it to change.”

https://www.anneapplebaum.com/2016/11/16/advice-from-europe-for-anti-trump-protesters/

Checking on past electoral results in your precinct

In my previous post, I was able to locate the precinct number in my county in Oregon where I vote. My next exploration was to see the results for the 2022 and 2020 elections for races that I voted on. There is a site called OpenElections which works to collect raw data from elections across the United States. This data is stored on Github. The data is organized by state, so I was quickly able to find the folder/repo with results for Oregon. Next, I found the 2022 general election results and the 2020 general election results (both results were saved as CSV files). Here were the results for my precinct for both of those years for the major (Dem/Rep) candidates:

2022

  • State House Rep: Tracy Cramer (Rep) 523, Anthony Medina (Dem) 542
  • State Senate: Richard Walsh (Dem) 533, Kim Thatcher (Rep) 528
  • US House Rep: Andrea Salinas (Dem) 517, Mike Erickson (Rep) 511
  • US Senate: Jo Rae Perkins (Rep) 466, Ron Wyden (Dem) 564
  • Governor: Tina Kotek (Dem) 486, Betsy Johnson (Ind) 71, Christine Drazan (Rep) 508

2020

  • State House Rep: Teresa Alonso Leon (Dem) 660, Anna Kasachev (Rep) 525
  • State Senate: Not up for re-election
  • US House Rep: Amy Ryan Courser (Rep) 508, Kurt Schrader (Dem) 649
  • US Senate: Jo Rae Perkins (Rep) 503, Jeff Merkley (Dem) 669
  • US President: Donald Trump (Rep) 507, Joe Biden (Dem) 678

Overall, this precinct is pretty evenly split between Democratic and Republican voters, even though statewide Democrats hold majorities in the Oregon House and Senate, and all 5 statewide offices. In my opinion, based on the results of the 2022 governor’s race (Tina Kotek beat Christine Drazan by 67,000 votes out of 1,935,852 votes cast), Oregon is becoming more of a “purple” state than remaining a “blue” state.