Thoughts on the US 2024 election

I am feeling somewhat better now. Last week, I was suffering from “election depression. On the night of the election, we turned the TV off at 10pm. In the morning, neither my wife nor I wanted to turn the TV on, but we did, and the first words we see are “TRUMP WINS”. Ugh. As I thought about the the past four years, and why did the election end up with a Trump win, the phrase “necessary but not sufficient” came to mind. It was necessary to update the Electoral Count Act, and it was necessary to take actions to have hundreds of lawyers ready to fight frivolous election fraud claims, and it was necessary to build up the elections offices across the US to ensure a free and fair election. But, those things, in and of themselves, were not sufficient to guarantee victory for Kamala Harris. Another phrase that comes to mind is “preparing to fight the last war“. Again, preparations were made to avoid another violent takeover like January 6th, but preparations were not made (or actions taken) to help ensure that Donald Trump would lose the election (fair and square). I am not the person to say what should have been done, or how the Democratic Party should have approached the 2024 election, but the fact that Trump won the popular vote and the Electoral College vote shows that (1) more people wanted Trump than Harris, and (2) all of the weird things that Trump did, all the things he did, the civil and criminal cases against him, did not sway his supporters to vote for Harris.

Nine days after the election, Trump has picked up the rest of the swing states, and Republicans will be in control of the House and Senate – the trifecta. Trump’s cabinet picks so far look like a “clown car from the circus”. His strategy – selecting people who will be totally loyal to him.

For myself, I need a little rest from the election. My wife and I have cut way back on our news consumption. I think our short term plan will be “watch and listen” or “wait and see”.

These posts by Joyce Vance (don’t jump to conclusions) and Manton Reece (saying that Trump is a threat to democracy is not a call for violence) sum up my opinion of the events at the Trump rally in Pennsylvania on July 13th. Manton’s comment on Joe Biden’s speech this evening is also aligned with what I think (good speech).

Politico: ‘It was horrifying’: Chutkan warns against complacency about Jan. 6 – The judge in Trump’s federal election subversion case used a Friday sentencing in a relatively routine Jan. 6 case to issue the warning. (via Election Law Blog)

Why I am sticking with Joe Biden

Yes, I watched the CNN debate on Thursday with Joe Biden and Donald Trump. Yes, I thought Joe Biden’s “performance” at the debate was poor, compared to the confidence of Trump’s presentation. However, Biden answered the questions set by the moderators and generally answered those questions truthfully, while Trump repeatedly refused to answer the questions in the debate, even after being pressed several times for some of those questions. Trump told so many lies that it took CNN’s Daniel Dale several minutes just to list all the lies that Trump spewed out over the course of the debate (also see text of fact checking). As Joe Biden mentioned afterwards, “It’s hard to debate a liar.”.

Several other perspectives:

Mary Trump (Trump’s niece) on Substack:

While Biden’s performance is rightly being criticized, it was the debate moderators who allowed Donald to steamroll the truth with an incessant stream of increasingly bizarre and dangerous lies — that he, not President Biden instituted a cap on insulin, that blue states allow women and their doctors to commit infanticide, and that Nancy Pelosi was somehow responsible for January 6th — while refusing to answer the questions asked of him. Why Jake Tapper and Dana Bash chose to abdicate their journalistic responsibility in service to a man who is an enemy of American democracy and a free press only they know, but that abdication should be a much bigger story, I know who Joe Biden really is. And I know who my uncle really is. And I’ll take the decent guy with the sore throat who believes in democracy over the rapist insurrectionist monster every single time.
https://marytrump.substack.com/p/why-im-still-with-president-biden

Seth Abraham on Substack:

Biden will not step away from the 2024 election cycle because it would hand the presidency, beyond any doubt, to a confirmed rapist, serial sexual assailant, active insurrectionist, convicted felon, pathological liar, malignant narcissistic sociopath, gleeful adulterer, career criminal, unrepentant con man, traitorous would-be U.S. dictator, misogynist, antisemite, racist, homophobe, transphobe, Islamophobe, and budding war criminal.
https://sethabramson.substack.com/p/the-extremely-simple-reason-maga

Heather Cox Richardson on Substack:

Tonight was the first debate between President Joe Biden and presumptive Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump, and by far the most striking thing about the debate was the overwhelming focus among pundits immediately afterward about Biden’s appearance and soft, hoarse voice as he rattled off statistics and events. Virtually unmentioned was the fact that Trump lied and rambled incoherently, ignored questions to say whatever he wanted; refused to acknowledge the events of January 6, 2021; and refused to commit to accepting the result of the 2024 presidential election, finally saying he would accept it only if it met his standards for fairness.
https://heathercoxrichardson.substack.com/p/june-27-2024

The American people have a choice between a convicted felon and liar, and a man who has fought to preserve democracy and improve our way of life. I am going with the second one.

What If Trump Wins? An interactive web site

Via an email newsletter from Eileen Flanagan, I found out about an interactive web site/story called “What If Trump Wins?”. The site presents the reader with an initial choice – does Trump or Biden win the 2024 US presidential election? Based on what result the reader selects, a set of other choices is presented along with a narrative to fit the initial choice. From the main site page, there are 25 different ways that the story ends. The site was created by the advocacy group Choose Democracy, which conducted trainings back in the 2020 election to prepare for a coup or possible electoral mischief. I “played” the story both ways (first selecting Trump and following the suggested actions, then selecting Biden and following different actions). I thought it was an excellent “thought exercise” which provided insight in how a Trump presidency might unfold. Check it out – it might make you want to get involved in the election!

Book Review: “Rules for Resistance: Advice from Around the Globe for the Age of Trump”

I found this book on the shelves near the John Kasich book I posted about yesterday. The book is a series of essays published in 2017 and edited by David Cole, National Legal Director for the ACLU. The essays are grouped by region (Europe, The Middle East, Asia, Latin America) as well as a set of essays for journalists covering Trump, and the text of the original guide from the group Indivisible.

Each essay passes on ideas/anecdotes on specific authoritarian rulers in those regions. The ones about Silvio Berlusconi in Italy were most like Trump, but essays about Orban, Modi, and Putin were also instructive. There were two essays that I thought had the best advice for opposing Trump:

Luigi Zingales, in an op-ed for the New York Times in November 2016 (paywall, also mostly available in this Washington Examiner post), compares Trump and Berlusconi, showing many similarities. He points out that Hillary Clinton spent so much time explaining how bad Trump was that she did not often promote her own ideas, to make the positive case for voting for her. Also, the news media focused too much on Trump’s behavior. The only two politicians who beat Berlusconi did it by focusing on the issues, not Berlusconi’s character. From this, I would say that the Democratic Party is trying to point out the significant policy differences between Trump and Biden, but I think there is still too much focus on Trump’s character flaws. Also, the hope that the indictments against Trump would keep him out of the election have gone for naught, so he will have to be beaten at the ballot box.

Anne Applebaum wrote an article for the Washington Post (also available on her site) called “Advice from Europe for Anti-Trump Protesters”, in which she made some observations about elections in Poland in 2015 and 2016. A radical populist party was able to win with a minority of voters, and started to destroy democratic and state institutions. Poles took to the streets in huge demonstrations. Here is a summary of her reflections on the value of those protests (her sub-headings from the article):

Protest makes people feel better
Protest, if not carefully targeted, achieves little
Protests inspire conspiracy theorists
Politics matter more than protests
In a democracy, real change comes through politics, political parties and elections

I think her final two sentences sum up her advice well:

“Protesting might make you feel better, it might win a few battles, and it might attract attention. I’m sorry if you are angry at “the establishment”, but you need to work for it and within it if you want it to change.”
https://www.anneapplebaum.com/2016/11/16/advice-from-europe-for-anti-trump-protesters/

Trump convicted in NY election interference case

The pictures say it all:

And, of course, from the Queens Daily Eagle – Queens man convicted:

Book report: A Citizen’s Guide to Beating Donald Trump

This book was published in the spring of 2020 and written by David Plouffe, campaign manager for Barack Obama, with the intent of helping to give ideas to individuals about what they could do to help beat Donald Trump in the 2020 election. The actual suggestions are pretty succinct, most of the book is anecdotes and examples from the Obama campaigns and the Hillary Clinton campaign. The following is a chapter by chapter summary.

Offense/Defense: Paint the contrast between Trump and the Democratic nominee focus on “gettable votes” (offense), combat lies, attacks and smears using social media (defense)

Create: Your video/song/paper/sign can help convince others, organize your own events, use your social media to get the word out

Hosting: Organize house parties, have events for volunteers

Battlegrounds: Go help in the battleground states if you possibly can, work phone banks, write letters

Money: Give money, let others know you gave money (to encourage/motivate them), hold fundraising events

The Campaign: Get out and work as a volunteer, and campaigns need to support their volunteers

Voting: Take people to the pools, support early voting, make sure everyone you know votes

Election Night: Be with friends

Okay people – now get to work!

Once again, it is up to us

The Supreme Court heard oral arguments in the presidential immunity appeal from Donald Trump this week (coverage from Election Law Blog, Joyce Vance at Civil Discourse, CNN takeaways, CNN live coverage, and The Bulwark). The outcome is uncertain, but appears to be headed for delaying the January 6th trial past the 2024 election. In 2022, I wrote a post on the theme of “it is up to us”, and this post can be considered a refrain. Several weeks ago, I wrote that our hopes for the courts to stop Donald Trump have been dashed. It is time for us to stand up to fight for our country. I just got a copy of “A Citizen’s Guide to Beating Donald Trump” from the library today, looking to take some action soon. It is time to get started.

Crooks and Liars.com: Four years ago yesterday, Donald Trump announced that “injecting bleach and shining light into the body would cure COVID-19” – it’s amazing we survived Trump, much less COVID-19!