in Elections, Micro.Blog, Politics

Follow-up on the 2026 US general election and Oregon races

Overall, the Democratic Party had overwhelming success across the nation, taking control of the House and Senate in Congress. In addition, the federal government did not interfere in Election Day activities. Election Law Blog has several posts on this topic, suggesting that the preparation of state and local election leaders helped create an environment that supported voter access and stood ready to fight interference.

  • Our Democracy Was Hanging By A Thread: Here’s How It Held (link)
  • Vindication For Those of Us Who Said Throughout We Would have Free and Fair Elections Without Major Disruptions (link)
  • Why the Trump Election Interference Strategy Failed (link)
  • It Was Failed Election Meddling, Not Absence of Election Meddling (link)

In my home state (Oregon), results generally favored Democrats. Democrat Tina Kotek had a 100,000 vote lead over the Republican Christine Drazen on Election Day with mail-in ballots still coming in through next week. With mail-in ballot volume since Election Day, it is very unlikely that Drazen can overtake Kotek, yet Drazen has refused to concede the race. As of November 6, Kotek’s lead has increased to 130,000 votes.

Two other races I was interested in were the US Senate race and the US House District 6 race. For US Senate, Democrat Jeff Merkley was running for reelection against Oregon House rep David Brock Smith. In past US Senate elections in Oregon, the Democratic incumbents Ron Wyden and Jeff Merkley have spent little effort to campaign in Oregon (advertising, candidate debates, other engagement). This happened again in 2026, but Merkley was able to easily beat Brock Smith (57% for Merkley, 39% for Brock Smith).

For the House District 6 race (a new district created in 2022), Andrea Salinas was running for reelection against former Dundee mayor David Russ. In her first two elections, Salinas faced businessman Mike Erickson. Both candidates spent quite a lot on negative ads. Andrea Salinas managed to win both times by 2-3% margins. In this year’s contest, David Russ raised about $15,000 versus $600,000 for Salinas. In this year’s race, Salinas had no advertising or engagement, yet she continued to send out almost daily fundraising texts – ugh! Even with Russ’ low financial support, he still managed to get 42% (with Salinas getting 57%). To me, this shows that there is a significant amount of Republican voters within the district, and that Salinas could face headwinds if a credible challenger could be found.

Write a Comment

Comment